IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rrpaxx/v12y2007i1p105-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining Welfare Caseload Reduction in New York State: The Effect of Policy or Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun Joo Chang

Abstract

Since the federal welfare reform caseloads have been on a downward trend in the U.S. and there exist substantial debate on the causes for the decline. As a case study on New York State, this study analyzes what has explained welfare caseload decline since welfare reform. This study employs an ARIMA model with intervention analysis using the gross state product as an economic force that reflects labor demand and supply, and policy intervention variables to determine which of the welfare reform and strengthened economy explains the welfare caseload reduction. This study concludes that welfare caseload decline in New York State is attributed to the programmatic changes of welfare reform and the state economy has not explained the decline. Local employment growth that results from economic growth has not affected exit rates from welfare and has not reflected the availability of jobs to welfare recipients. Rather, welfare recipients left welfare due to stringent work requirements and time-limited benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun Joo Chang, 2007. "Explaining Welfare Caseload Reduction in New York State: The Effect of Policy or Economy?," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 105-117, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rrpaxx:v:12:y:2007:i:1:p:105-117
    DOI: 10.1080/12294659.2007.10805095
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/12294659.2007.10805095
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/12294659.2007.10805095?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August.
    2. Dean W. Wichern & Richard H. Jones, 1977. "Assessing the Impact of Market Disturbances Using Intervention Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 329-337, November.
    3. Rebecca M. Blank, 2001. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 85-118.
    4. Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 199. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Sheldon H. Danziger (ed.), Economic Conditions and Welfare Reform, chapter 5, pages 119-157, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    5. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    6. J. P. Ziliak & D. N. Figlio & E. E. Davis & L. S. Connolly, "undated". "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or Economic Growth?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1151-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Axelsen, Dan & Snarr, Hal W., 2006. "Analyzing Washington state's welfare program design, workfirst," MPRA Paper 37248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary, 1996. "Design of the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System and Evaluation in Michigan," Upjohn Working Papers 96-41, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    3. James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio, 2000. "Geographic Differences in AFDC and Food Stamp Caseloads in the Welfare Reform Era," JCPR Working Papers 180, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    4. Chris Herbst & David Stevens, 2010. "The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on Work and Welfare Decisions: Revisiting an Old Question Using New Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(4), pages 453-479, August.
    5. James Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. Frank Howell, 2000. "Prospects for 'Job Matching' in the Welfare-to-Work Transition: Labor Market Capacity for Sustaining the Absorption of Mississippi's TANF Recipients," JCPR Working Papers 202, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    7. J. P. Ziliak & C. Gundersen & D. N. Figlio, "undated". "Welfare Reform and Food Stamp Caseload Dynamics," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1215-00, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    8. Adam Looney, 2005. "The effects of welfare reform and related policies on single mothers' welfare use and employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Corrado Andini, 2005. "Unemployment and Welfare Participation in a Structural VAR: Rethinking the 1990s in the United States (Revised)," HEW 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Haider, Steven J. & Klerman, Jacob Alex, 2005. "Dynamic properties of the welfare caseload," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 629-648, October.
    11. James R. Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    12. Susan E Mayer, 2000. "Why Welfare Caseloads Fluctuate: A Review of Research on AFDC, SSI, and the Food Stamps Program," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    13. Henry Brady & Mary H. Sprague & Fredric C. Gey & Michael L. Wiseman, 2000. "The Interaction of Welfare-Use and Employment Dynamics In Rural and Agricultural California Counties," JCPR Working Papers 201, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    14. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program," NBER Chapters, in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 291-364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Black, Dan A. & McKinnish, Terra G. & Sanders, Seth G., 2003. "Does the availability of high-wage jobs for low-skilled men affect welfare expenditures? Evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 1921-1942, September.
    16. J. P. Ziliak & D. N. Figlio & E. E. Davis & L. S. Connolly, "undated". "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or Economic Growth?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1151-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    17. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1105-1166, December.
    18. James P. Ziliak, 2015. "Temporary Assistance for Needy Families," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume 1, pages 303-393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hal Snarr & Jeffrey Edwards, 2009. "Does income support increase abortions?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 33(4), pages 575-599, November.
    20. Jeffrey Grogger & Charles Michalopoulos, 2003. "Welfare Dynamics under Time Limits," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 530-554, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rrpaxx:v:12:y:2007:i:1:p:105-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RRPA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.