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Explaining Welfare Caseload Reduction in New York State: The Effect of Policy or Economy?

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  • Hyun Joo Chang

Abstract

Since the federal welfare reform caseloads have been on a downward trend in the U.S. and there exist substantial debate on the causes for the decline. As a case study on New York State, this study analyzes what has explained welfare caseload decline since welfare reform. This study employs an ARIMA model with intervention analysis using the gross state product as an economic force that reflects labor demand and supply, and policy intervention variables to determine which of the welfare reform and strengthened economy explains the welfare caseload reduction. This study concludes that welfare caseload decline in New York State is attributed to the programmatic changes of welfare reform and the state economy has not explained the decline. Local employment growth that results from economic growth has not affected exit rates from welfare and has not reflected the availability of jobs to welfare recipients. Rather, welfare recipients left welfare due to stringent work requirements and time-limited benefits.

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  • Hyun Joo Chang, 2007. "Explaining Welfare Caseload Reduction in New York State: The Effect of Policy or Economy?," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 105-117, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rrpaxx:v:12:y:2007:i:1:p:105-117
    DOI: 10.1080/12294659.2007.10805095
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    1. Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August.
    2. Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 199. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Sheldon H. Danziger (ed.), Economic Conditions and Welfare Reform, chapter 5, pages 119-157, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    3. J. P. Ziliak & D. N. Figlio & E. E. Davis & L. S. Connolly, "undated". "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or Economic Growth?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1151-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    4. Rebecca M. Blank, 2001. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 85-118.
    5. Dean W. Wichern & Richard H. Jones, 1977. "Assessing the Impact of Market Disturbances Using Intervention Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 329-337, November.
    6. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.

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