IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
  • Karsten Gerdrup
  • Anne Sofie Jore
  • Christie Smith
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that model combination improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for inflation at the forecast horizon up to a year. By using a suite of models we allow for a greater range of modelling techniques and data to be used in the forecasting process.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00639.x
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 74 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 163-179

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:74:y:2012:i:2:p:163-179
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  2. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Don Coletti & Stephen Murchison, 2002. "Models in Policy-Making," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Spring), pages 19-26.
  4. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  6. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2007. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England.
  7. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2005. "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 268, Bank of England.
  8. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
  9. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
  10. Andersson, Michael K & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for VAR Models," Working Papers 2007:13, Örebro University, School of Business.
  11. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  12. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  13. Ashley, Richard, 2003. "Statistically significant forecasting improvements: how much out-of-sample data is likely necessary?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-239.
  14. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
  15. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
  16. Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, 06.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:74:y:2012:i:2:p:163-179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.