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Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?

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  • Luis Ayala

  • César Pérez

Abstract

Some of the possible determinants of the changes observed in the welfare caseloads have been analysed in this study. Our model attempts to explain variations in the welfare caseloads on the basis of four different factors: macroeconomic conditions, interactions with other income maintenance programmes, changes in the programme’s parameters and changes in the demographic structure. The model was tested by applying different time series techniques. The data employed is of an administrative nature and covered the whole period the Madrid programme has been in operation. The results show that institutional factors carry more weight than macroeconomic factors concerning changes in the welfare caseloads. The results warn against the standardisation of political decisions given that the effects vary considerably among the different demographic groups.
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Suggested Citation

  • Luis Ayala & César Pérez, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(3), pages 563-581, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:18:y:2005:i:3:p:563-581
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-005-0225-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    2. Luis Ayala & José María Arranz & Carlos García‐Serrano & Lucía Martínez‐Virto, 2021. "The effectiveness of minimum income benefits in poverty reduction in Spain," International Journal of Social Welfare, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 152-169, April.
    3. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2006. "The latin model of welfare: Do `insertion contracts' reduce long-term dependence?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 799-822, December.
    4. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2011. "Does the Employment of Fewer Caseworkers Lead to the Rationing of Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-804, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2025. "Workload and Bureaucratic Disentitlement: Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1250, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2007. "Barriers to employment and welfare dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 237-257.
    7. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2017. "Do Central Grants Affect Welfare Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1064, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Luis Ayala Cañón & Ángela Triguero Cano, 2017. "Economic Downturns, Endogenous Government Policy and Welfare Caseloads," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 220(1), pages 107-136, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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