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A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload

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  • Jacob Alex Klerman
  • Steven J. Haider

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the methods used in previous studies to assess the welfare caseload movements during the 1990s. We develop a model in which the welfare caseload is the net outcome of past flows onto and off of the caseload and show that such a stock-flow model can explain some of the anomalous findings in previous studies. We then estimate the stock-flow model using California administrative data. We find that approximately 50 percent of the caseload decline in California can be attributed to the declining unemployment rate. These estimates are more robust and larger than those obtained when applying more typical methods to the same California data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Alex Klerman & Steven J. Haider, 2004. "A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(4).
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:39:y:2004:i:4:p865-886
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael J. Boskin & Frederick C. Nold, 1975. "A Markov Model of Turnover in Aid to Families with Dependent Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 10(4), pages 467-481.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    2. Ho-Po Crystal WONG, 2016. "Credible Commitments and Marriage: When the Homemaker Gets her Share at Divorce," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 241-279, September.
    3. Oscar A. Mitnik, 2007. "Intergenerational transmission of welfare dependency: The effects of length of exposure," Working Papers 0715, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    4. Bo Zhao & David Coyne, 2017. "Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 3-23, September.
    5. Marianne E. Page & Joanne Spetz & Jane Millar, 2005. "Does the minimum wage affect welfare caseloads?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 273-295.
    6. Marianne Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Welfare Reform and Indirect Impacts on Health," NBER Working Papers 12642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Grogger, Jeffrey, 2007. "Markov forecasting methods for welfare caseloads," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 900-911, July.
    8. Bradley Heim, 2015. "Understanding the decline in self-employment among individuals nearing retirement," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 561-580, October.
    9. DUNCAN McVICAR, 2010. "Does Job Search Monitoring Intensity Affect Unemployment? Evidence from Northern Ireland," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(306), pages 296-313, April.
    10. Marc K Chan, 2014. "Measuring the Dynamic Effects of Welfare Time Limits," Working Paper Series 23, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Brian C. Hill & Matthew N. Murray, 2008. "Interactions Between Welfare Caseloads And Local Labor Markets," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 539-554, October.
    12. Todd Elder & Elizabeth Powers, 2007. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Entries and Exits of the Low-Income Elderly to and from the Supplemental Security Income Program," Working Papers wp156, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    13. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program," NBER Chapters,in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 291-364 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Welfare Reform and Children's Living Arrangements," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(1).
    15. Chris Herbst & David Stevens, 2010. "The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on Work and Welfare Decisions: Revisiting an Old Question Using New Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(4), pages 453-479, August.
    16. Ellen Meara & Richard Frank, 2006. "Welfare Reform, Work Requirements, and Employment Barriers," NBER Working Papers 12480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jessamyn Schaller, 2013. "For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1007-1033, July.
    18. Joelle Abramowitz & Marcus Dillender, 2017. "Considering the Use of Stock and Flow Outcomes in Empirical Analyses: An Examination of Marriage Data," Working Papers 17-64, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    19. Joelle Abramowitz, 2017. "Assisted Reproductive Technology and Women’s Timing of Marriage and Childbearing," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 100-117, March.
    20. Austin Nichols & Lucie Schmidt & Purvi Sevak, 2014. "Economic Conditions and SSI Applications," Working Papers wp318, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    21. Timothy J. Bartik, 2002. "Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Labor Market Spillover Effects of Welfare Reform," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 02-78, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    22. Steven J. Haider & Kathleen McGarry, 2005. "Recent Trends in Resource Sharing Among the Poor," NBER Working Papers 11612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Lucie Schmidt, 2013. "The New Safety Net? Supplemental Security Income after Welfare Reform," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-07, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    24. Giles, John & Park, Albert & Cai, Fang, 2006. "Reemployment of dislocated workers in urban China: The roles of information and incentives," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 582-607, September.

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