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Simultaneous Confidence Corridors and Variable Selection for Generalized Additive Models

Author

Listed:
  • Shuzhuan Zheng
  • Rong Liu
  • Lijian Yang
  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Abstract

In spite of the widespread use of generalized additive models (GAMs), there is no well established methodology for simultaneous inference and variable selection for the components of GAM. There is no doubt that both, inference on the marginal component functions and their selection, are essential in this additive statistical models. To this end, we establish simultaneous confidence corridors (SCCs) and a variable selection criteria through the spline-backfitted kernel smoothing techniques. To characterize the global features of each component, SCCs are constructed for testing their shapes. By extending the BIC to additive models with identity/trivial link, an asymptotically consistent BIC approach for variable selection is proposed. Our procedures are examined in simulations for its theoretical accuracy and performance, and used to forecast the default probability of listed Japanese companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuzhuan Zheng & Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2014. "Simultaneous Confidence Corridors and Variable Selection for Generalized Additive Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BIC; Confidence corridor; Extreme value; Generalized additive model; Spline-backfitted kernel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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