On the Importance of the Arrival of New Information
This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations, innovations, and possible breaks in the end of the sample. The methodology is applied to analyze the Chilean CPI inflation.
Volume (Year): 37 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 Year 2010 (December)
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- Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002.
"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, October.
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