A hybrid forecasting approach for piece-wise stationary time series
We consider the problem of forecasting a stationary time series when there is an unknown mean break close to the forecast origin. Based on the intercept-correction methods suggested by Clements and Hendry (1998) and Bewley (2003), a hybrid approach is introduced, where the break and break point are treated in a Bayesian fashion. The hyperparameters of the priors are determined by maximizing the marginal density of the data. The distributions of the proposed forecasts are derived. Different intercept-correction methods are compared using simulation experiments. Our hybrid approach compares favorably with both the uncorrected and the intercept-corrected forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- D. W. K. Andrews, 2003.
"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, August.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, August.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
- Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:7:p:513-527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.