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News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency; A Simple Approach

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  • Troy D Matheson
  • Emil Stavrev

Abstract

We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve’s May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative easing program. Our findings show that the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury bond yields immediately after the taper talk was largely due to monetary shocks, with positive economic news becoming increasingly important in subsequent months.

Suggested Citation

  • Troy D Matheson & Emil Stavrev, 2014. "News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency; A Simple Approach," IMF Working Papers 14/167, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/167
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    3. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?," NBER Working Papers 17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo Adler & Carolina Osorio Buitron, 2017. "Tipping the Scale? The Workings of Monetary Policy through Trade," IMF Working Papers 17/142, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carolina Osorio Buitron & Gustavo Adler, 2017. "Policy Mix and the US Trade Balance," IMF Working Papers 17/204, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Tillmann, Peter & Meinusch, Annette, 2015. "Quantitative Easing and Tapering Uncertainty: Evidence from Twitter," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112906, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Carolina Osorio Buitron & Esteban Vesperoni, 2015. "Big Players Out of Synch; Spillovers Implications of US and Euro Area Shocks," IMF Working Papers 15/215, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Peter Tillmann, "undated". "Tapering Talk on Twitter and the Transmission to Emerging Economies," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    6. CĂLIN, Adrian Cantemir, 2015. "The Effects Of The Federal Reserve’S Tapering Announcements On The Us Real Estate Market," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(3), pages 79-90.
    7. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Ishak Demir & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/195, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2019. "EME financial conditions: which global shocks matter?," Working Paper Series 2282, European Central Bank.
    10. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Radu LUPU & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN, 2016. "Quantitative Easing, Tapering And Stock Market Indices," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 5-23.
    11. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    12. Adler, Gustavo & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Sosa, Sebastian, 2016. "Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 8-28.
    13. Annette Meinusch & Peter Tillmann, 2015. "Quantitative Easing and Tapering Uncertainty: Evidence from Twitter," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201509, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. Troy D Matheson, 2015. "Normalization of Global Financial Conditions; The Implications for Brazil," IMF Working Papers 15/194, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Lewis, Daniel J., 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; United States; Economic News; bond yields; bond; equity prices; term bond; financial market; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Forecasting and Simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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