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Directional Accuracy Of Singapore’S Macroeconomic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • YOUNG BIN AHN

    (School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, P. R. China)

  • YOICHI TSUCHIYA

    (��Graduate School of International Cultural Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan)

Abstract

This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Young Bin Ahn & Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2023. "Directional Accuracy Of Singapore’S Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 68(05), pages 1569-1583, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:68:y:2023:i:05:n:s0217590819500541
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590819500541
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic forecast; directional accuracy; professional forecast; government forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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