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Modelling and forecasting UK public finances

  • Andrew Sentance
  • Stephen Hall
  • John O'Sullivan

In this paper, we present a new model of UK public finances which aims to shed light on recent problems of forecasting the PSBR. The main elements of public spending are treated as endogenous variables which rise in line with GDP over the medium term. Also, the cyclical response of public borrowing to rises in the level of economic activity is more muted when growth is export-led than when it is consumer-led. These two features go a long way towards explaining the rapid deterioration of public finances in the early 1990s and the slow pace of improvement since 1993.

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File URL: http://www.ifs.org.uk/fs/articles/fsshos.pdf
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Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

Volume (Year): 19 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 63-81

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Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:19:y:1998:i:1:p:63-81
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150, March.
  3. Tim Pike & David Savage, 1998. "Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 49-62, February.
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