Modelling and forecasting UK public finances
In this paper, we present a new model of UK public finances which aims to shed light on recent problems of forecasting the PSBR. The main elements of public spending are treated as endogenous variables which rise in line with GDP over the medium term. Also, the cyclical response of public borrowing to rises in the level of economic activity is more muted when growth is export-led than when it is consumer-led. These two features go a long way towards explaining the rapid deterioration of public finances in the early 1990s and the slow pace of improvement since 1993.
Volume (Year): 19 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
Phone: (+44) 020 7291 4800
Fax: (+44) 020 7323 4780
Web page: http://www.ifs.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Tim Pike & David Savage, 1998. "Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 49-62, February.
- Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:19:y:1998:i:1:p:63-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benita Rajania)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.