IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bkr/journl/v83y2024i4p76-97.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Revenues in the Russian Budget

Author

Listed:
  • Matvey Finagin

    (Bank of Russia; HSE University)

  • Sergey Sheremeta

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This paper examines methods for forecasting non-oil and gas revenues in Russia's budget system in order to construct a model with the smallest forecast error in conditions of the incomplete availability of the necessary data. We use mixed data, error correction, and autoregressive distributed lag models to forecast non-oil and gas revenues at different levels of aggregation: non-oil and gas revenues minus one-time receipts; cross-border and domestic duties; and eight groups of major taxes. The quality of the models is estimated using the root mean square errors of a pseudo out-of-sample forecasts on one- and three-year horizons. The forecasts of the models constructed turn out to be more accurate than the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of Russia for most forecast periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Matvey Finagin & Sergey Sheremeta, 2024. "Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Revenues in the Russian Budget," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 76-97, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:76-97
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/iblock/9de/p2pbebrzvioc9zk6xl02nv03zqb0po9n/Forecasting-Non-Oil-Gas-Revenues-in-the-Russian-Budget.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget revenue forecast; non-oil and gas revenues; taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:76-97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Olga Kuvshinova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.