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Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Valerija Botrić

    (Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Maruška Vizek

    (Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

In this paper we asses the ability of alternative time series models to produce accurate fiscal revenue forecasts in a transition country and compare them to offi cial forecast. We take on a disaggregated approach and estimate separate models for seven revenue sources. Alternative time series models – trend model, random walk, ARIMA, regression and error correction models – are specified using quarterly data. One - and two - year ahead forecasts are calculated and compared against actual values and official forecasts. Results suggest that despite impediments, econometric methods produce forecasts that are in general more accurate than official forecasts prepared using expert judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerija Botrić & Maruška Vizek, 2012. "Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 15(1), pages 23-36, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:zirebs:v:15:y:2012:i:2:p:23-36
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Theoretical Basis of Prediction of Main Budget Parameters of Country," Published Papers r90221, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Sabaj, Ernil & Kahveci, Mustafa, 2018. "Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 84404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Development of Prediction Model of Basic Budget Parameters in Russian Federation," Published Papers r90220, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Michael Safo OFORI & Abel FUMEY & Edward NKETIAH-AMPONSAH, 2020. "Forecasting Value Added Tax Revenue in Ghana," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(2), pages 63-99.
    5. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Methodological Principles of Prediction of Tax Revenues of Budgetary System," Published Papers r90219, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; fi scal revenues; time series; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance

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