The dynamics of Italian public debt: Alternative paths for fiscal consolidation
This paper analyses possible targets for the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables such as the US GDP growth, prices of raw materials, EUR/USD exchange rate, and ECB monetary policy stance and domestic policy instruments is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions play a fundamental role for the Italian fiscal consolidation. To reach a target of 100% of debt-to-GDP ratio by 2020, a further growth sustaining policy has to be implemented.
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- Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005.
"Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
- Carlo Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Working Papers 298, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2002.
"How do European Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Behave?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo A. Favero, . "How do European monetary and fiscal authorities behave?," Working Papers 214, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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