The predictive content of sectoral stock prices: a US-euro area comparison
This paper examines the out‐of‐sample forecast performance of sectoral stock market indicators for real GDP, private consumption and investment growth up to 4 quarters ahead in the US and the euro area. Our findings are that the predictive content of sectoral stock market indicators: i) is potentially strong, particularly for the financial sector, and is stronger than that of financial spreads; ii) varies over time, with a substantial improvement after 1999 for the euro area; iii) is stronger for investment than for private consumption; and iv) is stronger in the euro area than in the United States. JEL Classification: C53, E37, G12
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- Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013.
"Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 1-36, 02.
- De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2011. "Cyclical risk aversion, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 418, Bank of England.
- Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2012. "Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving and Monetary Policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp1132, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.