IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0440.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hatcher

    (Cardiff University)

Abstract

This paper analyses the conduct of monetary policy in an environment where households’ desire to amass precautionary savings is influenced by fluctuations in the volatilities of disturbances that hit the economy. It uses a simple New Keynesian model with external habit formation that is augmented with demand and supply disturbances whose volatilities vary over time. If volatility fluctuations are ignored by policy, interest rates are set at a suboptimal level. The extent of ‘policy bias’ is relatively small but of greater importance the higher the degree of habit formation. The reason is that habit-forming preferences raise risk aversion, increasing the importance of the precautionary savings channel through which volatility fluctuations impact upon inflation and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hatcher, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 440, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2011/time-varying-volatility-precautionary-saving-and-monetary-policy.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2009. "Why do risk premia vary over time? A theoretical investigation under habit formation," Bank of England working papers 361, Bank of England.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    4. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2013. "Second-order approximation of dynamic models with time-varying risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1231-1247.
    5. Martin M. Andreasen, 2010. "How Non-Gaussian Shocks Affect Risk Premia in Non-Linear DSGE Models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-63, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 15928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
    10. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June.
    11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    12. Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013. "Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 1-36, February.
    13. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    14. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    15. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    16. De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2012. "Why Do Risk Premia Vary Over Time? A Theoretical Investigation Under Habit Formation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 252-266, September.
    17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    18. Shephard, Neil (ed.), 2005. "Stochastic Volatility: Selected Readings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257201, Decembrie.
    19. Andrew Benito, 2006. "Does job insecurity affect household consumption?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 157-181, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013. "Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 1-36, February.
    2. Bianca De Paoli & Jens Søndergaard, 2017. "Revisiting the Forward Premium Anomaly Using Consumption Habits: A New Keynesian Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 516-540, July.
    3. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    4. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    5. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
    6. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    7. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    8. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
    9. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 653-722, Elsevier.
    11. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Marlène Isoré, 2012. "Essays in macro-finance [Essais de macro-finance]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03669376, HAL.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eo6779thqgm5r489m363974qg is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Benchimol, Jonathan & Ivashchenko, Sergey, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2022. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 3975-4004, June.
    17. Marlène Isoré & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2013. "Disaster Risk in a New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2013-12, CEPII research center.
    18. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Response of the Macroeconomy to Uncertainty Shocks:the Risk Premium Channel," 2019 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. José Luis Torres Chacon, 2015. "Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 2, number 54, October.
    20. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2013. "Second-order approximation of dynamic models with time-varying risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1231-1247.
    21. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying volatility; precautionary saving; monetary policy; DSGE models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.