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Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy

Author

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  • BIANCA DE PAOLI
  • PAWEL ZABCZYK

Abstract

This paper analyses the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite affect households’ propensity to save. It uses a New Keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justifies an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent, adverse disturbances. Equally, policy should be more restrictive following positive shocks.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013. "Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 1-36, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:1:p:1-36
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2012.00560.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00560.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2012. "Why Do Risk Premia Vary Over Time? A Theoretical Investigation Under Habit Formation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 252-266, September.
    3. Mark Kazarosian, 1997. "Precautionary Savings-A Panel Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 241-247, May.
    4. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
    5. Huggett, Mark & Ospina, Sandra, 2001. "Aggregate precautionary savings: when is the third derivative irrelevant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 373-396, October.
    6. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernández-Villaverde, 2005. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 891-910.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    8. Martin Floden, 2008. "Aggregate Savings When Individual Income Varies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 70-82, January.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
    10. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June.
    11. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    12. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Risk Aversion and the Natural Interest Rate
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2014-07-16 16:00:00
    2. 'Risk Aversion and the Natural Interest Rate'
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2014-07-16 13:21:30
    3. Should Monetary Policy Respond to Financial Conditions?
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2015-11-16 18:00:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. John H. Cochrane, 2016. "The Habit Habit," Economics Working Papers 16105, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    3. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Romain Bouis & Kei-Ichiro Inaba & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2014. "Secular Stagnation: Evidence and Implications for Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1169, OECD Publishing.
    5. Seneca, Martin, 2016. "Risk shocks close to the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 606, Bank of England.
    6. Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello & de Bondt, Gabe & Roma, Moreno, 2011. "The predictive content of sectoral stock prices: a US-euro area comparison," Working Paper Series 1343, European Central Bank.
    7. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    8. Bingbing Dong, 2014. "Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 881, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. repec:lus:reveco:v:68:y:2017:i:2:p:117-151:n:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:bla:econom:v:84:y:2017:i:335:p:516-540 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hatcher, Michael, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 440, Bank of England.
    12. repec:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:945-985. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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