Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving and Monetary Policy
This paper analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite affect households' propensity to save. It uses a New-Keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justifies an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent, adverse disturbances. Equally, policy should be more restrictive - i.e. `lean against the wind' - following positive shocks. Since the size of these `risk-adjustments' is increasing in the degree of macroeconomic volatility, ignoring this channel could lead to larger policy errors in turbulent times - with good luck translating into good policy.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005.
"Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," NBER Working Papers 10838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995.
"By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
NBER Working Papers
4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2007.
"The yield curve and macroeconomic dynamics,"
Working Paper Series
0832, European Central Bank.
- Huggett, Mark & Ospina, Sandra, 2001. "Aggregate precautionary savings: when is the third derivative irrelevant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 373-396, October.
- Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernández-Villaverde, 2005.
"Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 891-910.
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez, 2004. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2004-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Mark Kazarosian, 1997.
"Precautionary Savings-A Panel Study,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 241-247, May.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June.
- Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2009.
"Why do risk premia vary over time? A theoretical investigation under habit formation,"
Bank of England working papers
361, Bank of England.
- De Paoli, Bianca & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2012. "Why Do Risk Premia Vary Over Time? A Theoretical Investigation Under Habit Formation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 252-266, September.
- Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008.
"Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S111-S126, October.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 0613, European Central Bank.
- Martin Floden, 2008.
"Aggregate Savings When Individual Income Varies,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 70-82, January.
- Floden, Martin, 2005. "Aggregate Savings When Individual Income Varies," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 591, Stockholm School of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.