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Disaster Risk in a New Keynesian Model

  • Marlène Isoré
  • Urszula Szczerbowicz

This paper incorporates a small and time-varying “disaster risk” à la Gourio (2012) in a New Keynesian model. A change in the probability of disaster may affect macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. In particular, a higher risk is sufficient to generate a recession without effective occurrence of the disaster. By accounting for monopolistic competition, price stickiness, and a Taylor-type rule, this paper provides a baseline framework of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomic effects of rare events and nominal rigidity, particularly suitable for further analysis of monetary policy. We also set up our next research agenda aimed at assessing the desirability of several policy measures in case of a variation in the probability of rare events.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2013-12.

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Date of creation: Apr 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-12
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