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Predictability and (co-)incidence of labor and health shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Emile Cammeraat

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Brinn Hekkelman

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Pim Kastelein

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Suzanne Vissers

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

Setbacks such as dismissal or illness can turn the lives of people upside down. This study shows that such adverse events can be anticipated in advance and that their occurrence is strongly interrelated. These insights suggest that social security policy should consider the fact that vulnerable groups are likely to face multiple difficulties at the same time. Using machine learning techniques and anonymous data on millions of Dutch people, this study maps out the entire probability distribution of a wide range of labor market and health shocks. The degree of inequality in risk exposure across the population is striking. Most people have a low probability of becoming seriously ill or dependent on social benefits, while one percent of people bears up to thirty times more risk compared to the population average. People with a flexible employment contract, low income, little wealth and migration background are overrepresented within this high-risk group.

Suggested Citation

  • Emile Cammeraat & Brinn Hekkelman & Pim Kastelein & Suzanne Vissers, 2023. "Predictability and (co-)incidence of labor and health shocks," CPB Discussion Paper 453, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:453
    DOI: 10.34932/n1bs-qm11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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