IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Forecasting Exports Of Industrial Goods From Punjab - An Application Of Univariate Arima Model

Listed author(s):
  • Gulshan Kumar


    (D.A.V. College, Hoshiarpur, Punjab, India)

  • Sanjeev Gupta


    (Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India)

Registered author(s):

    The present study is an attempt to build a Univariate time series model to forecast the exports of industrial goods from Punjab for ensuing decade till 2020. The study employs Box-Jenkin’s methodology of building ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to achieve various objectives of study. Annual time series data for exports of industrial products have been culled from Directorate of Industries, Punjab for the period 1974-75 to 2007-08. Different selected models were tested by various diagnostic tests to ensure the accuracy of obtained results. The results revealed that during the days to come, exports of industrial products from Punjab are going to experience a sharp decline in growth as compared to past three decades in which growth maintained two digit level. In light of the forecasts, concerted efforts on the part of Government, entrepreneurs, industrialists, farmers and producers are the need of the hour to establish a healthy state economy and its export sector.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by University of Petrosani, Romania in its journal Annals of the University of Petrosani - Economics.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 169-180

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:10:y:2010:i:4:p:169-180
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:10:y:2010:i:4:p:169-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Imola Driga)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.