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Forecasting Exports Of Industrial Goods From Punjab - An Application Of Univariate Arima Model


  • Gulshan Kumar

    () (D.A.V. College, Hoshiarpur, Punjab, India)

  • Sanjeev Gupta

    () (Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India)


The present study is an attempt to build a Univariate time series model to forecast the exports of industrial goods from Punjab for ensuing decade till 2020. The study employs Box-Jenkin’s methodology of building ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to achieve various objectives of study. Annual time series data for exports of industrial products have been culled from Directorate of Industries, Punjab for the period 1974-75 to 2007-08. Different selected models were tested by various diagnostic tests to ensure the accuracy of obtained results. The results revealed that during the days to come, exports of industrial products from Punjab are going to experience a sharp decline in growth as compared to past three decades in which growth maintained two digit level. In light of the forecasts, concerted efforts on the part of Government, entrepreneurs, industrialists, farmers and producers are the need of the hour to establish a healthy state economy and its export sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Gulshan Kumar & Sanjeev Gupta, 2010. "Forecasting Exports Of Industrial Goods From Punjab - An Application Of Univariate Arima Model," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(4), pages 169-180.
  • Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:10:y:2010:i:4:p:169-180

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Regulations, Market Structure, Institutions, and the Cost of Financial Intermediation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 593-622, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Rafiq & Liu Hai Yun & Gulzar Ali, 2016. "Forecasting the Trend Analysis of Trade Balance of Pakistan: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(7), pages 188-214, July.

    More about this item


    ARIMA; Forecasting; Box-Jenkin Method; Akaike Information Criteria; Schwarz Bayesian Information Criteria;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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