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Choosing Parameters for Bayesian Symbolic Regression: An Application to Modelling Commodities Prices

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  • Krzysztof Drachal

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

This study examines the application of Bayesian Symbolic Regression (BSR) for in-sample modelling of various commodities spot prices. The studied method is a novel one, and it shows promising potential as a forecasting tool. Additionally, BSR offers capabilities for handling variable selection (feature selection) challenges in econometric modeling. The focus of the presented research is to analyze the suitable selection of the initial parameters for BSR in the context of modelling commodities spot prices. Generally, it is a challenge for (conventional) symbolic regression to properly specify the set of operators (functions). Here, the analysis is primarily focused on specific time-series, making the presented considerations especially tailored to time-series representing commodities markets. The analysis is done with an aim to assess the ability of BSR to fit the observed data effectively. The out-of-sample forecasting performance analysis is deferred for investigations elsewhere. Herein, the main objective is to analyze how the selection of initial parameters impacts the accuracy of the BSR model. Indeed, the already known simulations were based on synthetic data. Therefore, herein real-word data from commodities markets are used. The outcomes can be useful for researchers and practitioners further interested in econometric and financial applications of BSR. (Research funded by the grant of the National Science Centre, Poland, under the contract number DEC-2018/31/B/HS4/02021.)

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Drachal, 0000. "Choosing Parameters for Bayesian Symbolic Regression: An Application to Modelling Commodities Prices," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14116014, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:14116014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Jianbai & Li, Yingli & Zhang, Hongwei & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "The effects of uncertainty measures on commodity prices from a time-varying perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 100-114.
    2. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    3. Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011. "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 453-497, March.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    5. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian symbolic regression; Commodities; Genetic algorithms; Modelling; Symbolic regression; Time-series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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