US Tariff Changes and Bulgaria's Presence in Global Value Chains

With the introduction of new tariffs and restrictions in international trade, global value chains are undergoing a transformation. Traditionally, small and open economies such as Bulgaria's are actively involved in these chains, which tie their economic dynamics to their survival. The introduction of new tariffs on goods imported into the United States has led to an escalation of reciprocal actions and an expansion of the scope of customs restrictions in mutual trade. All this requires consideration of the impact on the functioning and future of value chains and, more generally, on trade in intermediate goods. While the broader EU–US trade framework provides the context, the analysis focuses primarily on Bulgaria’s role as a small open economy integrated into European GVCs. This article proposes a new methodology for assessing the effects of the introduction of tariffs on trade in intermediate goods. It develops the concept of indirect exports and evaluates the effect of the new US tariffs on indirect exports of Bulgarian goods that are processed and then exported to the US. The methodology is based on an analysis of export-significant commodity items and assesses the exports of goods with Bulgarian content from Bulgaria's largest trading partners. Conclusions are drawn about the impact of the new US tariffs on participation in value chains. The results show that the indirect effects range between a reduction of 1.79% of Bulgaria’s total goods exports and 0.74% of GDP, using the average‑value approach, and a decrease of 0.49% of total exports and 0.20% of GDP under refined commodity‑level assessment. These moderate losses place Bulgaria among the EU countries with relatively lower adverse effects compared to more highly exposed economies.