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Information Content of DSGE Forecasts

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Abstract

This paper examines the question whether information is contained in forecasts from DSGE models beyond that contained in lagged values, which are extensively used in the models. Four sets of forecasts are examined. The results are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP. The results suggest that there is information in the DSGE forecasts not contained in forecasts based only on lagged values and that there is no information in the lagged-value forecasts not contained in the DSGE forecasts. The opposite is true for forecasts of the GDP deflator.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2140, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2140
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d21/d2140.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Marcin Kolasa & MichaŁ Rubaszek & PaweŁ SkrzypczyŃski, 2012. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1301-1324, October.
    3. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
    4. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    8. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Michael & Del Negro, Marco & Giannoni, Marc P. & Gupta, Abhi & Li, Pearl & Moszkowski, Erica, 2019. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1770-1789.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE forecasts; Lagged values;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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