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Nowcasting Household Consumption And Investment In Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Tarsidin

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Idham

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Robbi Nur Rakhman

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

It is imperative for the Central Bank to know the current state of the economy as the basis underlying projections of future economic conditions. To that end, current economic conditions, in this case household consumption and investment, could be predicted using nowcasting. In this research, a nowcasting model was developed for the two aforementioned macroeconomic variables using a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). Theindicators used when nowcasting household consumption included: motor vehicle sales, total deposits, the lending rate on consumer loans, M1 and the rupiah exchange rate (NEER), while the indicators used for nowcasting investment included: cement sales, motor vehicle production, electric energy consumption, outstanding loans and M1. Accuracy testing showed that the nowcasting model for household consumption using DFM was sound, while the forecast error for nowcasting investment was significant but remained below the benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarsidin & Idham & Robbi Nur Rakhman, 2018. "Nowcasting Household Consumption And Investment In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 20(3), pages 1-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:20:y:2018:i:3:p:1-30
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i3.858
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    2. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2020. "The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 215-235.
    4. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jeffreys, Mona & Irurzun Lopez, Maite & Russell, Lynne & Smiler, Kirsten & Ellison-Loschmann, Lis & Thomson, Michael & Cumming, Jacqueline, 2020. "Equity in access to zero-fees and low-cost Primary Health Care in Aotearoa New Zealand: Results from repeated waves of the New Zealand Health Survey, 1996-2016," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(11), pages 1272-1279.
    6. Nur Annisa Hasniawati & Eva R. Lase & Akhis R. Hutabarat, 2020. "Indonesian Household Payment Choice: A Nested Logit Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 291-313.
    7. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Alifatussaadah, Ardiana & Primariesty, Anindya Diva & Soleh, Agus Mohamad & Andriansyah, Andriansyah, 2019. "Nowcasting Indonesia's GDP Growth: Are Fiscal Data Useful?," MPRA Paper 105252, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcasting; Mixed Frequency Regression; Dynamic Factor Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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