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Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory

Author

Listed:
  • Frank T. Denton
  • Christine H. Feaver
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2001. "Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 45, McMaster University.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:45
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap45.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; life expectancy; stochastic forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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