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Konjunkturprognose des sächsischen und des ostdeutschen Baugewerbes 2004/2005 : Konjunkturprognose für das Baugewerbe Sachsens und Ostdeutschlands

Listed author(s):
  • Michael Berlemann
  • Daniela Rother
  • Gerit Vogt

Seit Mitte der neunziger Jahre hat sich die Situation des ostdeutschen Baugewerbes dramatisch verschlechtert. Auch die zusätzlichen Ausgaben in Folge der Flutkatastrophe im August 2002 konnten nicht verhindern, dass sich die reale Bruttowertschöpfung zwischen 1997 und 2003 beinahe halbierte. Im Rahmen dieses Artikels werden ökonometrische Modelle zur Prognose der zukünftigen konjunkturellen Entwicklung des sächsischen und des ostdeutschen Baugewerbes vorgestellt. Für das Jahr 2004 wird ein Rückgang der realen Bruttowertschöpfung des sächsischen Baugewerbes um 9,6 % und für das Jahr 2005 eine Abnahme um 7,2 % prognostiziert. Für Ostdeutschland insgesamt ist für 2004 von einem Rückgang von 7,5 % und für 2005 von 10,1 % auszugehen.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 05 (October)
Pages: 13-22

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:11:y:2004:i:05:p:13-22
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