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Forecast of facilities stock for the consequences elimination of the anthropogenic accidents

Author

Listed:
  • Mkhitaryan, Vladimir

    (Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

  • Shishov, Vladimir

    (Penza State Technological Academy, Penza, Russia)

  • Kozlov, Andrey

    (Penza State Technological Academy, Penza, Russia)

Abstract

Accidents forecast of various nature with sufficient economic damage, maximal loss enhancement, elimination of their consequences is a national wide problem It is an important concern of authorities and all levels management In order to solve this problem we need a forecast system for emergencies and possible loss volume, for determination of optimal reserves being sufficient for rapid consequences elimination and carrying out accident recovery work. Some methods of forecast of facilities stock for the prediction and consequences elimination of the anthropogenic accidents being based on stochastic models of stock management are discussed It is also shown how we can use these methods in power grids of the Penza region

Suggested Citation

  • Mkhitaryan, Vladimir & Shishov, Vladimir & Kozlov, Andrey, 2010. "Forecast of facilities stock for the consequences elimination of the anthropogenic accidents," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 19(3), pages 91-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0095
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    anthropogenic accidents; damage; forecasting; optimal reserves; distribution law of damage; exponential distribution; gamma distribution; insurance reserve; stochastic model of stock management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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