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Methods of forecasting VAT revenues for the state budget of Ukraine


  • Oksana Okseniuk

    (Ivan Franko National University of Lviv)


VAT is the main indirect tax in Ukraine, among other countries, providing one of the largest items of state budget revenues. The presence of the VAT refund procedure and the need to cover public spending with the revenues from VAT administration require that an effective method of planning and forecasting VAT revenues for the new fiscal year be used. The purpose of the article was to analyze the effectiveness of two methods of forecasting of VAT revenues, such as the moving average method and the method of correlation and regression. This was done by analysing the effectiveness of forecasts made for previous years and comparing them with actual data to make the forecast of VAT revenues using these methods for 2014–2016 years and identifying the main causes of problems in the forecasting process. The results show that the forecasts based on two methods (correlation and regression analysis and double moving average) are sufficiently accurate. After making certain adjustments, these methods can be used at the national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Oksana Okseniuk, 2015. "Methods of forecasting VAT revenues for the state budget of Ukraine," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 10, pages 81-94, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ann:inecon:y:2015:i:10:p:81-94

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aguirre, Carlos A. & Shome, Parthasarathi, 1988. "The Mexican Value-Added Tax (VAT): Methodology for Calculating the Base," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(4), pages 543-54, December.
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    More about this item


    VAT; forecast; state budget;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies


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