IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ays/ispwps/paper0811.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pakistan’s Tax Gap: Estimates By Tax Calculation and Methodology

Author

Abstract

This report provides estimates of Pakistan’s tax gap by type of tax and describes the methodologies and data used to produce these estimates. A country’s tax gap is the amount of tax that goes uncollected due to non-compliance with the tax law. For estimation purposes, the operational definition of the tax gap is the difference between potential and actual federal tax revenue, where potential revenue is the amount of tax that the government would collect if everyone fully complied with the tax law. It is a simple matter to get actual tax collections by type of tax, so the trick to estimating a country’s tax gap is to obtain a reasonably accurate measure of potential tax revenue. Our basic strategy is to use micro-simulation models to estimate the potential revenues from Pakistan’s federal taxes of which there are only a hand full. Such modeling requires micro-economic data with information about the relevant tax bases and a tax calculator to simulate tax liabilities by type of tax. The advantage of this approach is the detailed information that it provides on the rate of compliance by type of tax which should be helpful in targeting scarce tax enforcement resources and in evaluating tax policy reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Robina Ather Ahmed & Mark Rider, 2008. "Pakistan’s Tax Gap: Estimates By Tax Calculation and Methodology," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0811, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0811
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://icepp.gsu.edu/files/2015/03/ispwp0811.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Rider, Mark, 2005. "Multiple Modes of Tax Evasion: Theory and Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 58(1), pages 51-76, March.
    2. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 338-347, June.
    4. Jenkins, Glenn P. & Kuo, Chun-Yan, 2000. "A VAT Revenue Simulation Model for Tax Reform in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 763-774, April.
    5. Feige, Edgar L. & Urban, Ivica, 2008. "Measuring underground (unobserved, non-observed, unrecorded) economies in transition countries: Can we trust GDP?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 287-306, June.
    6. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    7. Torgler, Benno, 2004. "Tax morale in Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 237-266, April.
    8. Keen, Michael & Smith, Stephen, 2006. "VAT Fraud and Evasion: What Do We Know and What Can Be Done?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(4), pages 861-887, December.
    9. Dixit, Avinash, 1975. "Welfare effects of tax and price changes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-123, February.
    10. Wayne Thirsk, 2008. "Tax Policy in Pakistan: An Assessment of Major Taxes and Options for Reform," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0808, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    11. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2014. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 301-351, May.
    12. Jonathan S. Feinstein, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Income Tax Evasion and its Detection," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(1), pages 14-35, Spring.
    13. James Andreoni & Brian Erard & Jonathan Feinstein, 1998. "Tax Compliance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 818-860, June.
    14. Aguirre, Carlos A. & Shome, Parthasarathi, 1988. "The Mexican Value-Added Tax (VAT): Methodology for Calculating the Base," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(4), pages 543-54, December.
    15. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Mark Rider, 2003. "Multiple Modes of Tax Evasion: Theory and Evidence from the TCMP," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0306, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    16. Aguirre, Carlos A. & Shome, Parthasarathi, 1988. "The Mexican Value-Added Tax (VAT): Methodology for Calculating the Base," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 41(4), pages 543-554, December.
    17. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Schneider, Friedrich & Chattopadhyay, Sumana, 2006. "The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 428-443, August.
    18. Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1999. "Approaches for Estimating Noncompliance: Examples from Federal Taxation in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 360-369, June.
    19. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2014. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 301-351, May.
    20. James Alm and Joege Martinez Vazquez, 2003. ""Sizing" the problem of the Hard-to-Tax," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0321, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    21. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    22. Umir Wahid & Sally Wallace, 2008. "Incidence of Taxes in Pakistan: Primer and Estimates," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0813, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    23. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Mark Rider & Sally Wallace, 2008. "Tax Reform in Russia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2368.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salar, Laleena & Zaman, Khalid & Khilji, Bashir Ahmad & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Lodhi, Mohammad Saeed, 2013. "The consequences of revenue gap in Pakistan: Unveiling the reality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 281-294.
    2. Ehtisham Ahmad, 2010. "Why is it so Difficult to Implement a GST in Pakistan?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(Special E), pages 139-169, September.
    3. Asif Razzaq & Rabia Nazir & Fareeha Adil, 2020. "Dynamic Relationship among Tax Evasion, Control over Corruption and Political Accountability: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 256-261.
    4. Ahmad, Ehtisham, 2010. "The political-economy of tax reforms in Pakistan: the ongoing saga of the GST," Discussion Papers 95948, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    5. World Bank, . "Albania Public Finance Review : Part 1. Toward a Sustainable Fiscal Policy for Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies, The World Bank, number 17279, April.
    6. Cabral, Ana Cinta G. & Gemmell, Norman, 2018. "Estimating Self-Employment Income-Gaps from Register and Survey Data: Evidence for New Zealand," Working Paper Series 7625, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Andrew Feltenstein & Musharraf Cyan, 2012. "A Computational General Equilibrium Approach to Sectoral Analysis for Tax Potential: An Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1226, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    2. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt26s710z8, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    3. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2007. "With or Against the People? The Impact of a Bottom-Up Approach on Tax Morale and the Shadow Economy," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt6331x6vz, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    4. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2011. "Tax Morale, Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Nikopour, Hesam & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar & Schneider, Friedrich & Law, Siong Hook, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Shadow Economy: A Causality Analysis Using Panel Data," MPRA Paper 14485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Benno Torgler & Markus Schaffner & Alison Macintyre, 2007. "Tax Compliance, Tax Morale and Governance Quality," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-17, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    7. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider & Christoph Schaltegger, 2010. "Local autonomy, tax morale, and the shadow economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 293-321, July.
    8. James Alm & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2007. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion in Latin America," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0704, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    9. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 504-554, June.
    10. James Alm & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2007. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion in Latin American Countries," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0732, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    11. Schneider, Friedrich G. & Buehn, Andreas, 2009. "Shadow economies and corruption all over the world: revised estimates for 120 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-53.
    12. Friedrich Schneider & Robert Klinglmair, 2004. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we know?," Economics working papers 2004-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Afonso, Oscar, 2012. "The impact of public goods and services and public R&D on the non-observed economy size, wages inequality and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1996-2004.
    14. Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Germany, Austria and Other oecd-Countries. Some Preliminary Findings," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(5), pages 1079-1116.
    15. Martin Halla, 2011. "The Link between the Intrinsic Motivation to Comply and Compliance Behaviour: A Critical Appraisal of Existing Evidence," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The Shadow Economy and Shadow Labor Force: A Survey of Recent Developments," IZA Discussion Papers 8278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: What do we really know?," Economics working papers 2006-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    18. Torgler, Benno, 2011. "Tax morale and compliance : review of evidence and case studies for Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5922, The World Bank.
    19. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich & Schaltegger, Christoph A., 2007. "With or Against the People? The Impact of a Bottom-Up Approach on Tax Morale and the Shadow Economy," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt6331x6vz, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    20. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pakistan; Pakistan Taxation; tax gap; non-compliance;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ispgsus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paul Benson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ispgsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.