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Modelling Long-Term Electricity Contracts at EEX

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Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modelling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modelling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts (namely Phelix Base Fututes with next year´s delivery) and prices of long-term futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Flasza & Milan Rippel & Jan Šolc, 2011. "Modelling Long-Term Electricity Contracts at EEX," Working Papers IES 2011/08, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Mar 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_08
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/15952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diko Pavel & Lawford Steve & Limpens Valerie, 2006. "Risk Premia in Electricity Forward Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electricity futures; EEX; ARIMAX; emission allowances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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