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Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma

  • Adusei Jumah

  • Sohbet Karbuz

Abstract

We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price observations. We show that oil price forecasts improve significantly when this asymmetry is explicitly modelled.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz, "undated". "Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles," Working Papers 2007-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2007-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    3. repec:aen:journl:1994v15-04-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    5. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donghua Wang & Tianhui Fang, 2022. "Forecasting Crude Oil Prices with a WT-FNN Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices and the USD/EUR Exchange Rate," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4.
    3. Asche, Frank & Dahl, Roy Endre & Oglend, Atle, 2013. "Value-at-Risk: Risk assessment for the portfolio of oil and gas producers," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/3, University of Stavanger.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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