IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The effect of 107th OPEC Ordinary Meeting on oil prices and economic performances in Japan

  • Hanabusa, Kunihiro
Registered author(s):

    The aim of this paper is to show the influence of the 107th OPEC Ordinary Meeting (meeting) and investigates the relationships between oil prices and economic activities, using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model from 1991 to 2008 in Japan. We find that levels and volatilities of oil prices increase after the meeting. We examine the effects of it on Japanese economic activities, employing a Granger-causality test and data before and after it. The empirical result reveals that each price of regular gasoline and diesel has information to be useful to predict the economy after the meeting. On the other hand, volatilities of regular gasoline and diesel price have information to predict the inflation and economic growth before the meeting, respectively. After the meeting, however, these volatilities change to be useful to predictive both inflation and economic growth. Thus, we conclude that the decision of meeting is related to not only the domestic oil prices, but also the macroeconomy.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032111005806
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 1666-1672

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:1666-1672
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description

    Order Information: Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
    Web: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-51, September.
    2. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    3. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    4. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    8. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    10. Hanabusa, Kunihiro, 2010. "Effects of foreign disasters on the petroleum industry in Japan: A financial market perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5455-5463.
    11. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    12. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    13. Hanabusa, Kunihiro, 2009. "Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1953-1957, May.
    14. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    15. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Conrad, C. & Karanasos, M., 2005. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in the USA, Japan and the UK: a dual long memory approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 327-343, August.
    17. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:1666-1672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.