IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v345y2005i3p603-607.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a flight to quality due to inflation uncertainty?

Author

Listed:
  • Guler, Bulent
  • Ozlale, Umit

Abstract

After two types of inflation uncertainty are derived within a time-varying parameter model with GARCH specification, the relationship between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for safe assets is investigated. The results support the existence of a “flight to quality” effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Guler, Bulent & Ozlale, Umit, 2005. "Is there a flight to quality due to inflation uncertainty?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 603-607.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:345:y:2005:i:3:p:603-607
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.07.038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843710401060X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2004.07.038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
    2. Chan, Louis K C, 1994. "Consumption, Inflation Risk, and Real Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 69-96, January.
    3. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    5. Berument, Hakan, 1999. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 207-218, May.
    6. Hakan Berument, 1999. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 207-218, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    2. Ali, Sajid & Raza, Naveed & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Le, Van, 2022. "Modelling the joint dynamics of financial assets using MGARCH family models: Insights into hedging and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. A. Can Inci & H.C. Li & Joseph McCarthy, 2011. "Measuring flight to quality: a local correlation analysis," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 69-87, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. E. Yuksel & Y. Akdi, 2009. "The effect of different inflation risks on interest rates of the US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 169-175.
    2. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, May.
    3. Amaefula C. G, 2016. "The Effects of Inflation and its Risk on Interest Rate: An Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 74-78.
    4. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Hasan Olgun, 2007. "Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 53-68.
    5. Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Berument, Hakan & Kilinc, Zubeyir & Ozlale, Umit, 2004. "The effects of different inflation risk premiums on interest rate spreads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 317-324.
    7. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
    8. Thomas Mayer, 1998. "Indexed Bonds And Heterogeneous Agents," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 77-84, January.
    9. KIM, Jae-Young & PARK, Woong Yong, 2018. "Some Empirical Evidence on Models of the Fisher Relation: Post-Data Comparison," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-68, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    12. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
    13. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.
    14. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2019. "The Fisher puzzle, real rate anomaly, and Wicksell effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 128-148.
    15. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    16. Cihan Yalcin & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates : Does It Tell About Future Inflation," Discussion Papers 0002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
    18. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin & Joyce Hsieh & Yu-Bo Suen, 2018. "The Fisher Equation: A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 162-180, January.
    19. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    20. Noureddine Benlagha, 2014. "Dependence structure between nominal and index-linked bond returns: a bivariate copula and DCC-GARCH approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3849-3860, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filter; Generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity; Flight to quality effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:345:y:2005:i:3:p:603-607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.