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Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates : Is The Fisher Relation Universal?

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  • Hakan Berument
  • Hasan Olgun
  • Basak Ceylan

Abstract

This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Berument & Hasan Olgun & Basak Ceylan, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates : Is The Fisher Relation Universal?," Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  • Handle: RePEc:bil:wpaper:0607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    2. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    3. Berument, Hakan, 1999. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 207-218, May.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, May.
    6. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
    7. Hakan Berument & Mohamed Mehdi Jelassi, 2002. "The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1655.
    8. Berument, Hakan & Nergiz Dincer, N., 2005. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G-7 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 371-379.
    9. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1996. "On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 163-175, January.
    10. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
    11. F. H. Hahn, 1970. "Savings and Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 21-24.
    12. Jeung-Lak Lee & Carolyn Clark & Sung Ahn, 1998. "Long- and short-run Fisher effects: new tests and new results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 113-124.
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    Cited by:

    1. Burak Güriş & Yaşar Yaşgül, 2015. "Does the Fisher hypothesis hold for the G7 countries? Evidence from ADL threshold cointegration test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2549-2557, November.
    2. Shu-Chin Lin, 2009. "Inflation And Real Stock Returns Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 783-795, October.
    3. Habib Rahman & Hasan Mohsin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 342-360, December.
    4. Sadaf Zafar & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Evaluation of Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge in Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:118, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    5. Takayasu Ito, 2009. "Fisher Hypothesis in Japan: Analysis of Long-term Interest Rates under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 1019-1035, July.
    6. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    7. Rodionova, Alena, 2014. "Formation of long-term rate of return: Fisher effect in the markets of public debt of developing countries," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 116-139.
    8. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9355-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chen, XiaoHua & Maringer, Dietmar, 2011. "Detecting time-variation in corporate bond index returns: A smooth transition regression model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 95-103, January.

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