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Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future

  • Andrés González Gómez

    ()

  • Lavan Mahadeva

    ()

  • Diego Rodríguez

    ()

  • Luis Eduardo Rojas

    ()

If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, theyhave to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecastsfrom external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is financial marketdata, which can help but only after smoothing out irrelevant short-term volatility. In this paper we proposecombining different types of useful but awkward data set with a linearised forward-looking DSGE modelthrough a Kalman Filter fixed-interval smoother to improve the utility of these models as policy tools. Weapply this scheme to a model for Colombia.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 005480.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005480
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  1. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: PATACON Model Description," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008698, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  18. P.A. Tinsley & P.A. Spindt & M.E. Friar, 1980. "Indicator and filter attributes of monetary aggregates: a nit-picking case for disaggregation," Special Studies Papers 140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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