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Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model

  • Luis E. Rojas

    ()

This paper derives a link between the forecasts of professional forecasters and a DSGEmodel. I show that the forecasts of a professional forecaster can be incorporated to the statespace representation of the model by allowing the measurement error of the forecast and thestructural shocks to be correlated. The parameters capturing this correlation are reducedform parameters that allow to address two issues i) How the forecasts of the professionalforecaster can be exploited as a source of information for the estimation of the model andii) How to characterize the deviations of the professional forecaster from an ideal completeinformation forecaster in terms of the shocks and the structure of the economy.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 008945.

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Length: 16
Date of creation: 15 Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:008945
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  1. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José Torres, 2011. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR–DSGE model," SERIEs- Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 379-399, September.
  2. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. A. C. Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0888, Econometric Society.
  4. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  5. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Technical Working Papers 0332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  7. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2004. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Jul 2005.
  8. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, . "Monetary Policy Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Data that is Uncertain, Unbalanced and About the Future," Borradores de Economia 559, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
  10. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
  11. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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