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Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model

  • Luis E. Rojas


This paper derives a link between the forecasts of professional forecasters and a DSGEmodel. I show that the forecasts of a professional forecaster can be incorporated to the statespace representation of the model by allowing the measurement error of the forecast and thestructural shocks to be correlated. The parameters capturing this correlation are reducedform parameters that allow to address two issues i) How the forecasts of the professionalforecaster can be exploited as a source of information for the estimation of the model andii) How to characterize the deviations of the professional forecaster from an ideal completeinformation forecaster in terms of the shocks and the structure of the economy.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 008945.

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Length: 16
Date of creation: 15 Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:008945
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  1. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005480, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. A. C. Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0888, Econometric Society.
  3. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  4. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
  5. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2009. "Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention," Working Paper Series 1009, European Central Bank.
  6. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
  9. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
  10. Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2009. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an Augmented VAR-DSGE model," Working Papers 2009-1, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
  11. Andrade, P. & Le Bihan, H., 2010. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Working papers 307, Banque de France.
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