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Professional Forecasters: How to Understand and Exploit Them Through a DSGE Model

  • Luis E. Rojas

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This paper derives a link between the forecasts of professional forecasters and a DSGE model. I show that the forecasts of a professional forecaster can be incorporated to the state space representation of the model by allowing the measurement error of the forecast and the structural shocks to be correlated. The parameters capturing this correlation are reduced form parameters that allow to address two issues i) How the forecasts of the professional forecaster can be exploited as a source of information for the estimation of the model and ii) How to characterize the deviations of the professional forecaster from an ideal complete information forecaster in terms of the shocks and the structure of the economy.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 664.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:664
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  1. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Technical Working Papers 0332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
  3. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  4. Koopman, Siem Jan & Harvey, Andrew, 2003. "Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1317-1333, May.
  5. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2009. "Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention," Working Paper Series 1009, European Central Bank.
  6. Hervé Le Bihan & Philippe Andrade, 2010. "Inattentive Professional Forecasters," 2010 Meeting Papers 1144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  8. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005480, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José Torres, 2011. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR–DSGE model," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 379-399, September.
  10. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
  11. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
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