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Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model generalizes existing regime-switching models that allow for ARCH terms only. The empirical application on U.S. dollar exchange rates shows that our model indeed yields better volatility forecasts than single-regime GARCH and that the allowance for GARCH terms besides ARCH terms can be crucial for the forecast quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1998. "Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts," Discussion Paper 1998-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:f5bcd096-7744-4137-aabc-6a305c6266d9
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    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/portal/files/529207/52.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 267-290.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander, Carol, 2004. "Normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility: Modelling short- and long-term smile effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2957-2980, December.
    2. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 668-681.
    3. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; regime-switching; volatility; forecasting; exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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