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Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic

  • Alexis Derviz
  • Jiri Podpiera

In this paper we investigate the determinants of the movements in the long-term Standard & Poors and CAMELS bank ratings in the Czech Republic during the period when the three biggest banks, representing approximately 60% of the Czech banking sector's total assets, were privatized (i.e., the time span 1998-2001). The same list of explanatory variables corresponding to the CAMELS rating inputs employed by the Czech National Bank's banking sector regulators was examined for both ratings in order to select significant predictors among them. We employed an ordered response logit model to analyze the monthly long-run S&P rating and a panel data framework for the analysis of the quarterly CAMELS rating. The predictors for which we found significant explanatory power are: Capital Adequacy, Credit Spread, the ratio of Total Loans to Total Assets, and the Total Asset Value at Risk. Models based on these predictors exhibited a predictive accuracy of 70%. Additionally, we found that the verified variables satisfactorily predict the S&P rating one month ahead.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2004/01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2004/01
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  1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
  2. Kadri Männasoo & David G Mayes, 2005. "Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and East European Emerging Markets," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
  3. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
  4. Alexis Derviz & Narcisa Kadlcakova, 2001. "Methodological Problems of Quantitative Credit Risk Modeling in the Czech Economy," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/39, Czech National Bank.
  5. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
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