Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania
In this paper we propose an early warning system for the Romanian banking sector, as an addition to the standardized CAAMPL rating system used by the National Bank of Romania for assessing the local credit institutions. We aim to find the determinants for downgrades as well as for a bank to have a weak overall position, to estimate the respective probabilities and to be able to perform rating predictions. Having this purpose, we build two models with binary dependent variables and one ordered logistic model that accounts for all possible future ratings. One result is that indicators for current position, market share, profitability and assets quality determine rating downgrades, whereas capital adequacy, liquidity and macroeconomic environment are not represented in the model. Banks that will have a weak overall position in one year can be predicted using also indicators for current position, market share, profitability and assets quality, as well as, in this case, capital adequacy and macroeconomic environment, the latter only for the binary dependent variable model, leaving liquidity indicators out again. Based on the ordered logistic model’s capacity for rating prediction, we estimated one year horizon scores and ratings for each bank and we aggregated these results for predicting a measure of assessing the local banking sector as a whole.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 6 ROMANA PLACE, 70167 - BUCHAREST|
Web page: http://www.dofin.ase.ro/carfib/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alexis Derviz & JiÅÃ Podpiera, 2008.
"Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 117-130, January.
- Alexis Derviz & JiÃ…Â™ÃƒÂ Podpiera, 2008. "Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 117-130, January.
- Alexis Derviz & Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2004/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- FFF1Jitka NNN1Rychtarikova, 2004. "The case of the Czech Republic," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(5), pages 105-138, April.
- Engelmann, Bernd & Hayden, Evelyn & Tasche, Dirk, 2003. "Measuring the Discriminative Power of Rating Systems," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Rupert D Worrell, 2004. "Quantitative Assessment of the Financial Sector; An Integrated Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/153, International Monetary Fund.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & G. Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-60.
- Allen N. Berger & Margaret K. Kyle & Joseph M. Scalise, 2000.
"Did U.S. bank supervisors get tougher during the credit crunch? Did they get easier during the banking boom? Did it matter to bank lending?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2000-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allen N. Berger & Margaret K. Kyle & Joseph M. Scalise, 2001. "Did U.S. Bank Supervisors Get Tougher during the Credit Crunch? Did They Get Easier during the Banking Boom? Did It Matter to Bank Lending?," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allen N. Berger & Margaret K. Kyle & Joseph M. Scalise, 2000. "Did U.S. Bank Supervisors Get Tougher During the Credit Crunch? Did They Get Easier During the Banking Boom? Did It Matter to Bank Lending?," NBER Working Papers 7689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000.
"Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions," Working Papers 1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Rupa Duttagupta & Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/93, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin Cihak & Klaus Schaeck, 2007. "How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?," IMF Working Papers 07/275, International Monetary Fund.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cab:wpaefr:39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ciprian Necula)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.