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Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Author

Listed:
  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
  • Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," NBER Working Papers 18751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18751
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia R. Sahm & Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2010. "Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 69-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    3. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
    6. Allen Sinai, 2010. "The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 25-29, May.
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The slow recovery is even more man-made than the start of the recession
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-02-18 22:00:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2018. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 428-439, April.
    2. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 4688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "The Value of News," Working Papers No 6/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Van Zandweghe, Willem & Braxton, John Carter, 2013. "Has durable goods spending become less sensitive to interest rates?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-27.
    5. Shoag, Daniel & Veuger, Stan, 2016. "Uncertainty and the geography of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 84-93.
    6. repec:taf:nzecpp:v:50:y:2016:i:3:p:261-280 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    8. repec:rre:publsh:v47:y:2017:i:3:p:243-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Michael Kumhof & Romain Ranciere & Pablo Winant, 2013. "Inequality, Leverage and Crises; The Case of Endogenous Default," IMF Working Papers 13/249, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Pablo Mejía-Reyes & Reyna Vergara-González, 2015. "Are more severe recessions followed by stronger recoveries? Evidence from the Mexican states employment," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1223, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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