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Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
  • Matthew D. Shapiro

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18751.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18751.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Publication status: published as Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 147-52, May.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18751
Note: EFG IFM ME
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  1. Claudia R. Sahm & Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2009. "Household response to the 2008 tax rebates: survey evidence and aggregate implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Working Paper Series 1090, European Central Bank.
  3. Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 808, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Allen Sinai, 2010. "The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 25-29, May.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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