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The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections

Author

Listed:
  • Arai, Natsuki
  • Iizuka, Nobuo
  • Yamamoto, Yohei

Abstract

This paper evaluates the efficiency of the Japanese fiscal authority’s revenue projections using real-time data from 1960 to 2022. While their one-year-ahead projections are not efficient, their accuracy can be significantly improved by adjusting the forecasts based on the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2024. "The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524005196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112035
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Revenue projections; Japan; Forecast evaluation; Real-time data; Out-of-sample forecast accuracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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