Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model
Confronted with an ageing population, developed countries are facing the challenge of providing care to a growing number of disabled elderly people. Knowing how many they will be and, given the current pensions and welfare systems, how much it will cost to care for them is crucial to policymakers. The INSEE pensions microsimulation tool (called Destinie) was extended in 2011 to elderly disability, in preparation for a reform of the funding of elderly disability in France. Microsimulation at the individual level allows to take into account expected changes in the distribution of variables that influence the process under study. It also allows to simulate allowances based on complex, non-linear scales that require calculation at the individual level. This document describes the implementation method and the results of the forecasts. First, on the characteristics of the disabled elderly and presence of caregivers. Then, several alternative scenarios are studied and yield a range of estimates of the future cost of the allowance for elderly disability, ranging from 0.54% of GDP in the most optimistic scenario to 0.71% of GDP in the most pessimistic one.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
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- Duée, Michel & Rebillard, Cyril & Pennec, Sophie, 2005.
"Les personnes dépendantes en France : Evolution et prise en charge
[Old-age disability in France: Long-term evolution, private caregiving and public expenditure]," MPRA Paper 69877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sophie Buffeteau & Emmanuelle Crenner & Sylvie Le Minez & Didier Blanchet, 2011. "Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 : principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 441(1), pages 101-121.
- Carole Bonnet & Emmanuelle Cambois & Chantal Cases & Jöelle Gaymu, 2011. "La dépendance : aujourd’hui l’affaire des femmes, demain davantage celle des hommes ?," Population et Sociétés 483, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
- M. Duée & C. Rebillard, 2004. "Old age disability in France: a long run projection," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2004-02, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
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