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A Macroeconometric Model for Serbia

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  • Klaus Weyerstrass
  • Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein

Abstract

This paper describes and evaluates a quarterly macroeconometric model for Serbia. Due to the economic restructuring and transformation in Serbia which followed the major geographical, economic, and institutional disruptions in the former Yugoslavia in the first half of the 1990s, reliable macroeconomic time series for Serbia are available only from about 1997 onwards. Hence, quarterly data have been used to estimate the behavioural equations of the model. However, for some aggregates, only annual data are available. In these cases, quarterly data have been derived by recurring to related series. Notwithstanding these data limitations, the macroeconometric model is able to replicate the endogenous variables reasonably well in an ex post simulation. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Weyerstrass & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein, 2013. "A Macroeconometric Model for Serbia," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(2), pages 85-106, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:2:p:85-106:10.1007/s11294-013-9393-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-013-9393-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    2. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    4. Klaus Weyerstrass & Gottfried Haber & Reinhard Neck, 2001. "SLOPOL1: A macroeconomic model for Slovenia," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 20-37, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reinhard Neck & Klaus Weyerstrass & Dmitri Blueschke & Miroslav Verbič, 2021. "Demand-side or supply-side stabilisation policies in a small euro area economy: a case study for Slovenia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 593-610, August.
    2. Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "An Estimated Bayesian DSGE Model for Kazakhstan," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 30-54, March.
    3. Anca Tanasie, 2010. "A Brief Evaluation Of Inflation Targeting In Romania Envisaging The Euro Adoption," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(38), pages 180-189, May.
    4. Dmitri Blueschke & Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck & Boris Majcen & Andrej Srakar & Miroslav Verbič, 2019. "Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 325-348, May.
    5. Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of the Adoption of the Euro: The Case of Slovenia," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February.
    6. Reinhard Neck & Klaus Weyerstrass & Dmitri Blueschke & Boris Majcen & Andrej Srakar & Miroslav Verbič, 2018. "How to Achieve the Take-off into Sustained Growth: A Case Study for Slovenia," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 109-121, May.
    7. Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck, 2008. "Macroeconomic effects of Slovenia’s integration in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 391-403, September.
    8. Aizhan Bolatbayeva & Alisher Tolepbergen & Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "A macroeconometric model for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 6(2), pages 114-143, June.
    9. Reinhard Neck & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Serbia’s Integration in the EU and the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 277-292, August.
    10. Reinhard Neck & Dmitri Blueschke & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policies for Slovenia in the “Great Recession”," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(4), pages 345-366, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric modelling; Serbia; Model evaluation; C51; C53; E17;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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