IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/68062.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Degiannakis, Stavros
  • Eeckels, Bruno
  • Filis, George

Abstract

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Eeckels, Bruno & Filis, George, 2015. "Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 68062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68062/1/MPRA_paper_68062.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:9-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl & Fang Xu, 2012. "The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 619-638, June.
    3. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
    4. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    8. repec:eee:touman:v:33:y:2012:i:5:p:1141-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    10. repec:eee:touman:v:31:y:2010:i:1:p:45-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:1:p:172-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    13. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:5:p:1196-1203 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael & Min, Jennifer C.H., 2009. "ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2879-2888.
    15. repec:eee:touman:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:331-341 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    17. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    18. repec:eee:touman:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:275-277 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
    2. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Ghodsi, Zara & Ghodsi, Mansi & Heravi, Saeed & Hassani, Hossein, 2017. "Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 151-168.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourist arrivals forecasting; seasonal ARIMA; Diebold-Mariano test; disaggregated data; macroeconomic indicators.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.