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Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

Author

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  • Gizem Uzuner

    (Istanbul Gelisim University)

  • Sudeshna Ghosh

    (Scottish Church College, 1&3 Urquhart Square, University of Calcutta)

Abstract

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:55:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-020-01074-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-020-01074-7
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    2. Sinem Koçak & Özge Barış-Tüzemen, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 on foreign direct investment inflows in emerging economies: evidence from panel quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Carol X. & Rickly, Jillian M., 2021. "A review of early COVID-19 research in tourism: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research's Curated Collection on coronavirus and tourism1," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Sajjad Ahmad Afridi & Asad Shahjehan & Sania Zaheer & Wajid Khan & Ali Gohar, 2023. "Bridging Generative Leadership and Green Creativity: Unpacking the Role of Psychological Green Climate and Green Commitment in the Hospitality Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.

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