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Migration Policy Uncertainty and Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the US


  • Zhen An

    (China Post Research Institute, China.)


To examine the potential relationship between migration policy uncertainty and terrorist attacks, this study uses the migration policy uncertainty index based on newspaper coverage frequency under the empirical framework of Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Based on the Granger causality test, migration policy uncertainty increases the occurrence of terrorist attacks. (2) From impulse response analysis, the exogenous shock to migration policy uncertainty has a significant and persistent impact on terrorist attacks. (3) By forecast error variance decomposition, migration policy uncertainty contributes to more than 24% of the forecast error variance of terrorist attacks. (4) The nexus between migration policy uncertainty and terrorist attacks only exists in typical migration countries, such as the U.S. Therefore, this paper first documents the causal relationship between terrorist attack and migration policy uncertainty. In practice, policymakers should decrease migration policy uncertainty in order to prevent the likelihood of future terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen An, 2019. "Migration Policy Uncertainty and Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the US," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 44-56, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:ijosaa:2019:p:44-56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:eee:touman:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:404-417 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Syed Hasanat Shah & Hafsa Hasnat & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad, 2016. "The Effects of the Human Cost of Terror on National Income, Private Consumption and Investment in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 216-235, September.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:57-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rafael Llorca-Vivero, 2008. "Terrorism And International Tourism: New Evidence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 169-188.
    6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-352.
    7. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    8. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    10. Faheem Aslam & Hyoung-Goo Kang, 2015. "How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 634-648, December.
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    More about this item


    Migration policy uncertainty; Terrorist attacks; Vector autoregression; Granger causality test; Impulse response function; Variance decomposition.;

    JEL classification:

    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General


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