IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v22y2016i2p417-447.html

The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model

Author

Listed:
  • José Francisco Perles-Ribes
  • Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez
  • Martín Sevilla-Jiménez
  • Antonio Rubia

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • José Francisco Perles-Ribes & Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez & Martín Sevilla-Jiménez & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Crises on Tourism Success: An Integrated Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 417-447, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:2:p:417-447
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2014.0428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/te.2014.0428
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/te.2014.0428?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    3. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 1979. "Tourism and the Business Cycle. Econometric Models for the Purpose of Analysis and Forecasting of Short-Term Changes in the Demand for Tourism," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2878, August.
    5. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    2. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    4. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 517-537, December.
    5. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?," Monash Economics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 616-631.
    9. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Chen, Shi & Liang, Chong & Schienle, Melanie, 2018. "Time-varying Limit Order Book Networks," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-016, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    10. Peng, Rong & Lu, Zudi, 2024. "Semiparametric Averaging of Nonlinear Marginal Logistic Regressions and Forecasting for Time Series Classification," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 19-37.
    11. Abdelkamel Alj & Christophe Ley & Guy Melard, 2015. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients: Part I," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    13. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    14. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    15. Nyoni, Thabani & Mutongi, Chipo, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models," MPRA Paper 93984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
    18. Andrea Bucci & Vito Ciciretti, 2021. "Market Regime Detection via Realized Covariances: A Comparison between Unsupervised Learning and Nonlinear Models," Papers 2104.03667, arXiv.org.
    19. Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian & Skeete, Stephney, 2008. "Are Shocks to Barbados Long-Stay Visitor Arrivals Permanent or Temporary: A Short Empirical Note," MPRA Paper 95597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2023. "Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: A joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:2:p:417-447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.