IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0302980.html

A time-varying analysis between economic uncertainty and tourism development in Singapore

Author

Listed:
  • Bui Hoang Ngoc
  • Canh Chi Hoang
  • Nguyen Huynh Mai Tram

Abstract

Tourism development (TO) is seen as a viable solution to address economic policy uncertainty (EPU) risks. However, previous studies have largely ignored the relationship between short, medium, and long term by decomposing TO and EPU index at different time-frequency scales, especially in Singapore. In this study, the Wavelet tools analysis and a rolling window algorithm are employed to re-visit the causal relationship between EPU, industrial production index (IPI), government revenue (GR), and tourism development (TO) in Singapore from January 2003 to February 2022. The findings revealed the heterogeneous effects of EPU on TO at different time horizons in terms of importance and magnitude over time. A rise in EPU results in a decline in TO at the low frequencies, indicating that EPU has a detrimental effect on TO over the short term. Conversely, in the long term, an increase in TO results in a decrease in EPU. Furthermore, the outcome also indicated that there is a uni-directional causality running from TO to EPU, GR and IPI. Expressly, we confirm that the negative co-movement is more pronounced in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, particularly for EPU, and GR at low-medium frequencies throughout the research period. The findings provide tourism policymakers with insight to develop strategic plans for tourism development that consider the effects of economic policy uncertainty. By understanding how uncertainty impacts tourism, governments can tailor development strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Bui Hoang Ngoc & Canh Chi Hoang & Nguyen Huynh Mai Tram, 2024. "A time-varying analysis between economic uncertainty and tourism development in Singapore," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0302980
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302980
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0302980
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0302980&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0302980?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chandan Sharma, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of the economic policy uncertainty on the tourism demand in India," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 867-873, June.
    2. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    3. Ritu Singh & Debojyoti Das & R. K. Jana & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "A wavelet analysis for exploring the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and tourist footfalls in the USA," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1789-1796, September.
    4. Yunfeng Shang & Chunyu Bi & Xinyu Wei & Dayang Jiang & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2023. "Eco-tourism, climate change, and environmental policies: empirical evidence from developing economies," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2020. "How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Lee, Chew Ging, 2010. "Health care and tourism: Evidence from Singapore," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 486-488.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    9. Stephen F. Witt & Haiyan Song & Stephen Wanhill, 2004. "Forecasting Tourism-Generated Employment: The Case of Denmark," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 167-176, June.
    10. Jiajia Li & Kaifeng Duan & Quanwei Xu & Xuefei Sun & Yanwei Zhang & Changhua Hua, 2021. "Efficiency of tourism development in China’s major cities under the constraint of PM2.5," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-23, August.
    11. James E. Payne & Mert Topcu & Massomeh Hajille & Farhang Niroomand, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks and U.S. Overseas Travel," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 115-122, January.
    12. Fangnan Cui & Yaolong Liu & Yuanyuan Chang & Jin Duan & Jizu Li, 2016. "An overview of tourism risk perception," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 643-658, May.
    13. Imen Dakhlaoui & Chaker Aloui, 2016. "The Interactive Relationship Between the US Economic Policy Uncertainty and BRIC Stock Markets," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 141-157.
    14. Usman Khalid & Luke Emeka Okafor & Katarzyna Burzynska, 2021. "Does the size of the tourism sector influence the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic?," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 2801-2820, October.
    15. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Su Dinh Thanh & Bach Nguyen, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and tourism consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 920-941, June.
    16. Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Yi-Dong Xiao & Haotian Zhu & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2021. "Trends in tourism under economic uncertainty," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 841-858, June.
    17. Shuping Shi & Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips, 2020. "Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money–Income Relationship [Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the United States]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 18(1), pages 158-180.
    18. Bradley Hardy & James P. Ziliak, 2014. "Decomposing Trends In Income Volatility: The “Wild Ride” At The Top And Bottom," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 459-476, January.
    19. Asif Khan & Sughra Bibi & Ardito Lorenzo & Jiaying Lyu & Zaheer Udden Babar, 2020. "Tourism and Development in Developing Economies: A Policy Implication Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    21. Juan Gabriel Brida & Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2016. "Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 394-430, April.
    22. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect Tourism?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 15-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
    2. Xin Zhao & Muhammad Saeed Meo & Tella Oluwatoba Ibrahim & Noshaba Aziz & Solomon Prince Nathaniel, 2023. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 320-349, April.
    3. Umer Shahzad & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Ibrahim Shah & Buhari DoÄŸan & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 46(3), pages 266-295, June.
    4. Azam Muhammad & Mahdiat Mahdiat & Hafeez Muhammad Haroon & Bakhtyar Baher, 2022. "Investigating the Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Polish Journal of Sport and Tourism, Sciendo, vol. 29(1), pages 39-47, March.
    5. Chew Ging Lee & Shi-Min How, 2023. "The impacts of domestic and global economic policy uncertainties on the hotel room demand: Evidence from Singapore," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 1121-1129, June.
    6. Sana Naseem, 2021. "The Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, August.
    7. Han Liu & Peng Yang & Haiyan Song & Doris Chenguang Wu, 2024. "Global and domestic economic policy uncertainties and tourism stock market: Evidence from China," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(3), pages 567-591, May.
    8. Yuting Gong & Chia-Hsun Chang & Paul Tae-Woo Lee & Jingbo Yin & Wenming Shi, 2024. "Unveiling the mystery of the responsiveness of inbound tourism to economic policy uncertainty: New evidence from Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(8), pages 2159-2180, December.
    9. Hong, Yun & Zhang, Rushan & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Time-varying causality impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Global evidence from developed and emerging countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Yong Su & Jacob Cherian & Muhammad Safdar Sial & Alina Badulescu & Phung Anh Thu & Daniel Badulescu & Sarminah Samad, 2021. "Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, January.
    11. Khalid Khan & Jiluo Sun & Sinem Derindere Koseoglu & Ashfaq U. Rehman, 2021. "Revisiting Bitcoin Price Behavior Under Global Economic Uncertainty," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    12. Mustafa Cakir & Ahmet Ekrem Kaya, 2023. "Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Change Over Time in Turkiye?," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 359-383, June.
    13. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    14. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    16. Li, Xin & Umar, Muhammad & Zhu, Cun-Bin & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Can geopolitical risk stably predict crude oil prices? A multi-dimensional perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    17. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Hasan Güngör & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2019. "Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure in BRIC Countries: Evidence From Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, June.
    18. Chi, Junwook, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates on international air travel demand: The case from Hong Kong," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. James E Payne & Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1333-1341, August.
    20. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Yousaf, Imran & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0302980. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.