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Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads

  • Hännikäinen, Jari

This paper re-examines the out-of-sample predictive power of interest rate spreads when the short-term nominal rates have been stuck at the zero lower bound and the Fed has used unconventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that the predictive power of some interest rate spreads have changed since the beginning of this period. In particular, the term spread has been a useful leading indicator since December 2008, but not before that. Credit spreads generally perform poorly in the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy period. However, the mortgage spread has been a robust predictor of economic activity over the 2003–2014 period.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56737/1/MPRA_paper_56737.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 56737.

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Date of creation: 18 Jun 2014
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56737
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  14. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
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  17. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
  18. Walentin, Karl, 2013. "Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads," Working Paper Series 275, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
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